Tuesday 6/22/10 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...

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Anybody ever hear of Uncle Harry? He keeps sending me e-mails of his picks and he's pretty good. He only charges 10$ but i don't want to call him or e-mail him because he'll get my info and bother the hell out of me. I don't know if i can give out his info here but if anyone's interested and it's ok with this web site PM me and i'll give it to you. I don't know if my PM is on and if it's not i don't know how to turn it on. I guess you can google him too.
 
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COMPS:

Charlies Sports
Free MLB Pick

St. Louis @ Toronto-110. The (38-31) St Louis Cardinals have a slim lead in the NL Central over the Cincinnati Reds and will look to stay that way with a tough series in Toronto. The (38-32) Toronto Blue Jays are better than most expected in 2010 and will get a real test against the Cards, Toronto wins-110.


Tom Freese
Bonus Play

Los Angeles Dodgers at Los Angeles Angels
Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers

Dodger starter Clayton Kershaw has allowed 3 or less runs 11 of his 14 starts this year. The Dodgers are 21-8 their last 29 games as favorites and they are 15-6 vs. a starter with a WHIP of greater than 1.30. Manny and company after allowing 2 or less runs in their last game. Angels starter Ervin Santana has allowed 11 runs in his last two starts both of which were losses. The Angels are 1-4 in the last 5 Interleague starts made by Santana. The Angels are 1-7 their last 8 Tuesday games and Santana is 1-5 his last 6 Tuesday starts.


MTi Sports
Bonus Play

Chicago Cubs at Seattle Mariners
Prediction: Seattle Mariners

The Mariners are 9-0 as a favorite after a win in which they allowed 6 or fewer hits and 7-0 at home when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start. The Cubs are 0-5 after a 5+ run win and 0-10 with Dempster when they won as a home favorite in his last start. Seattle looks like the play.


Scott Spreitzer
Bonus Play

Greece at Argentina
Prediction: Over

Diego Maradona's squad crushed South Korea 4-1 on Thursday, showing his team is a contender to go all the way. Don't be fooled by their low-scoring 1-0 win over Nigeria in their opening game. Argentina had enough chances where they could have easily scored at least three more times. And while the greeks would love to focus on the defensive end, they can't be too conservative because they need at least a tie to have a chance to advance to the Knockout round. I believe Greece will score at least one goal, but won't be able to contain Argentina's all-star forwards. I expect a goal total like we saw on Thursday...5 goals on the board before it's all said and done. I'm playing the Over between Greece and Argentina on Tuesday.


BIG AL COMP

Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers
PICK: Minnesota Twins

The Brewers troubles at home continue. They are currently just 11-19 at Miller park heading back home for this series against the Twins after a road trip to Anaheim and Colorado which saw the Brewers go 3-3. They should be so lucky as to do that during the home-stand which starts tonight. But their poor home record may be the least of their concerns as they start off the home-stand against one of the best interleague teams in history. And they will have to face righthander Scott Baker who is coming off of his best start of the season in his last outing against Colorado in which he shut out the Rockies over seven innings allowing just two hits with a career-high 12 strikeouts vs. just one walk. Outings don't get much more dominant than that and now Baker will be looking to parlay that against a team that he has a 4-2 record against in six career starts. Even more impressive, Baker is 8-2 with a 3.81 ERA in 12 career interleague starts. The Brewers will throw lefthander Chris Narveson. About the only positive thing you can say about Narveson is that he has a winning record at 5-4. His ERA is 5.79 and he has surrendered a minimum of four earned runs in four of his past five starts. At .267, the Twins are the sixth-best team in the American League against left-handed pitching. Also, Minnesota is 20-8 in the last 28 meetings and 9-4 in the last 13 meetings in Milwaukee. Take the Twins.


MARC LAWRENCE
Free play

Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers
PICK: Minnesota Twins

The Twins open a three game series with the Brewers when they send Scott Baker to the mound in Milwaukee tonight. Bakers enters tonight's fray in great KW form with three walks and 17 strikeouts in his last three starts. He's also 5-1 in his last six road starts during June. With that, look for Baker to improve to 5-2 in his career team starts against the Brewers while the Twins improve to 9-2 the last 11 games in this series. We recommend a 1-unit play on Minnesota.


Nick “Bookie Killer” Parsons
Bonus Play

Giants @ Astros
PICK: Over

For a number of different reasons I believe the value in this contest is on the "over":

Tim Lincecum heads to the mound for the visitors; Lincecum's last start was cut short as a line drive hit him in the back right shoulder in the sixth inning vs. the Orioles on Wednesday; he allowed two runs on eight hits over that span; he walked four; he's 7-2 on the year with a 3.11 ERA.

Lincecum was 5-5 with a 3.21 ERA on the road last season.

In the other dugout: Roy Oswalt gets the nod for the home side; the best word to describe Oswalt this year would be "unpredictable".

After a couple of very poor outings, he's seemingly got back on track with a couple of strong showings.

For his career though, he's 5-7 with a 3.67 ERA vs. the Giants.

He's 5-8 with a 3.12 ERA this season.

Bottom line: San Francisco came alive at the plate in its inter-league contest in Toronto on Sunday, hammering the Jays 9-6; Freddy Sanchez had a three-run shot and Pat Burrell a two-run bomb to help the Giants win their first game this season in an AL stadium; I believe this team will carry over some of that offensive production into Houston.

Important to note as well that Giants relievers have been brutal so far this year on the road with a collective 5.22 ERA through Sunday; the San Francisco bullpen had allowed runs in 20 of 29 contests.

The Astros are coming off a disheartening 5-4 loss in ten innings on Sunday as the Rangers completed a three-game sweep at Minute Maid Park.

Because of Sunday's result, Houston made its biggest roster shake-up of the year; top position prospect Jason Castro was called up to be the starting catcher; Chris Johnson will enter the regular mix at third base, and a third call-up, Jason Bourgeois, will see some time in the outfield. Outfielder Cory Sullivan, reliever Casey Daigle and catcher Kevin Cash were all designated for assignment.

I believe this move will inspire the Astro's core group to wake up at the plate and take accountability for this teams struggles.

When factoring in all of the above information, this total seems a little low, and you may want to consider a second look at the OVER in this situation.


EZWINNERS COMP

Texas Rangers -250

The Texas Rangers are a red hot baseball team and I will ride them here for hopefully another free winner. The Rangers have won eight straight games and sit at the top of the American League Central with a 3.5 game lead over the Angels. Tommy Hunter gets the start for the Rangers and in three starts this season Hunter has allowed a total of four earned runs in 17 2/3 innings for an ERA of 2.04. I expect another good outing out of Hunter against a struggling Pittsburgh team. The Pirates have won two games in a row, but they are dead last in the National League Central and had lost twelve straight games before defeating the Indians in their last two games. Pittsburgh's starting pitcher Ross Ohlandorf is 0-5 this season with an ERA of 5.22. Ohlandorf has allowed 11 earned runs over his last two starts and is just 1-2 with a 6.40 ERA in interleague play. I don't expect Ohlandorf's numbers to get much better in this game against a red hot Texas lineup in a hitters ballpark. The Pirates are only 3-13 in Ohlendorf's last sixteen road starts and 10-42 in their last fifty two interleague road games. The Rangers are 8-0 in their last eight interleague games and 5-0 in Hunters last five starts against a team with a losing record. Play on Texas.


Gill Alexander
Free play

SFG (-140) vs HOU

Lincecum has not been at his sharpest of late. He has a 4.47ERA in his last 7 starts. He ranks 1st in the NL w 106SO but has also issued 37BB, the 7th worst total in the NL. However, he's holding opponents to a .223BA this season and righties to anemic .191 clip. Keppinger, Lee, Pence, and Feliz are among the Astros who hit from the right side of the plate. Lincecum has a career 1.33ERA v Hou. Oswalt has similar numbers to those of Lincecum. He has 89SO against 24BB and is holding opponents to a .224BA. Righties are only hitting .199 against him. That's not quite the advantage in this matchup, though Sanchez, Molina, Uribe, and Rowand are right-handed. That quartet doesn't represent quite the offensive impact as the Astros quartet mentioned above. Sabermetrics love both Lincecum and Oswalt, though Timmy gets the slight edge. The Freak has a 2.77FIP and 3.12xFIP (both 4th best in MLB) w a .314BABIP, indicating that Lincecum has earned those tremendous numbers. Oswalt has a 3.28FIP (17th best in MLB) and 3.40xFIP (9th best in MLB) w a .281BABIP, not a big dropoff from Lincecum's metrics. The Giants have beaten the Astros 8 times in a row and the Astros have scored a total of 12 runs in their 6 meetings this season. San Francisco has won 9 of 14 over all and have scored 6 runs in 8 of those 9 victories. It's always a little nervy fading Oswalt, but the opportunity to back Lincecum at this price doesn't come along often, especially when he has bonafide ownage on a team (along w the Giants overall ownage of the Astros) and his offense is going good.
 
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COMPS:

MIKEY SPORTS
MLB | Jun 22

Toronto Blue Jays
-103
Free MLB Play


R&R TOTALS
MLB | Jun 22

Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Total
8½ under
Free MLB Over-Under


PURE LOCK
MLB | Jun 22

Los Angeles Angels
+115
Free MLB Play


DENNIS MACKLIN
Bonus Play

MLB: Over 7.5 Cincinnati (Arroyo) at Oakland (Braden) 10:05 PM EST

Bronson Arroyo has been smoked for a 6.61 ERA in his last three road starts. The Big Red lumber not doing much the past week hitting just .204 but Dallas Braden just might be the remedy. The A's have lost all seven Braden starts since the perfect game, the Oakland southpaw 0-4 and 4.98 over that period. Thinking this one is set to fly over the total.


Cajun Sports
Bonus Play

The St. Louis Cardinals head north of the border for an interleague series versus the host Toronto Blue Jays. The first game is set for Tuesday night with the first pitch at 7:07PM Eastern Time. The Cardinals who have posted a record of 6-3 during interleague play this season will send left-hander Jamie Garcia to the bump with his 4-2 road record and ERA of 1.74. Toronto will counter with Brett Cecil who is 2-1 at home with an ERA of 4.50 this season. The Blue Jays have struggled against NL teams this season during interleague play winning only five of twelve contests. A check of the database reveals a MLB system that is active for tonight’s contest and it tells us to play against AL teams who have a team batting average of .260 or worse facing a NL starter whose ERA is 3.70 or better, a team that is batting .240 or worse over their last fifteen games. Playing against these AL teams has produced a record of 59-17 and 38 Units of profit since 97. Toronto leads the league in home runs but Garcia has only allowed two homeruns in thirteen starts so the longball should not be a factor in tonight’s matchup. We will back the better overall team at a very good price as the Cards grab Game 1 on Tuesday night.

PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* St. Louis Cardinals 4 Toronto Blue Jays 3


Karl Garrett
Bonus Play

All set for a pitcher's duel this Tuesday night?

The G-Man is all about Tommy Hanson of the Braves, and John Danks of the White Sox locking horns in a classic pitcher's duel tonight.

Hanson just worked 7 scoreless innings against Tampa Bay in a home win his last time out to improve to 7-3 for the season, with a 3.38 ERA. On the road, Hanson is 4-1 with an ERA just a shade over 2, at 2.34 to be exact, and I don't see the White Sox figuring him out in their first look at him.

John Danks will counter for a Chicago team that just played all 3 games this past weekend in Washington under the posted total to make it 5 of their last 8 games under the posted price.

Danks' last 15 innings of work have seen a grand total of just 2 runs score, and at home this year Danks owns a 3-3 mark with a 2.20 ERA. 6 of Danks' 7 home starts this year have played under the total, and the G-Man sees this one playing under the total as well.

The Braves bats have been hot of late, but up against a quality hurler like Danks, and on the road, I have a feeling both Danks and Hanson will be dealing this Tuesday night.

G-Man going under the total in this Braves-White Sox game
2? UNDER
 
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Bob Balfe

South Africa DRAW

France should be ashamed of themselves for their poor play and unprofessional attitute towards their coach and country. South Africa is not on the same level as France but, in their last game of the World Cup, I expect them to play well and to force a draw against a lazy French team with nothing really to play for and no heart. Take the DRAW (+235).


Uruguay +300

The South American teams have been dominant so far and we are going to stick with that trend today. Mexico is a great team, but they do not have the physical strength in their lineup to be able to compete with some of the better countries. Look for Uruguay to do just enough to just sneak by for the upset. Take Uruguay.


Argentina -1

Greece played well in their second game, but the big boys of Argentina have too much speed and talent. The Greeks have a pretty good FIFA ranking, which will drop after this world cup as their talent is on the decline. Argentina has what it takes to win the World Cup and the Greeks will meet their match today. Take Argentina to win by more than a goal.


South Korea +130

The African teams have been disappointments at the World Cup, but they never really had much talent going into it. South Korea has come along way and needs a win today to advance in this group. They have the ability to upset a big powerhouse in the next round as well, so I think this is a team we need to watch out for. Take South Korea with the upset.


Texas Rangers -1.5

The Ranges are the hottest team in baseball and are facing the worst road team in the league. Pittsburgh has zero offense and even less when playing on the road. Ohlendorf has yet to win a game and I don't expect much to change today going against Hunter who has consistently pitched great. Take the Rangers runline.
 

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